In this section, we are going to break down what we predicted to be right and wrong over the weekend. We will also touch on WTF happened. The unpredictable events which should be on our radar for games in the future.
Overview of Week 11
Going into the week, there were no games that were popping off as “must-attack” games on the main-slate. The highest projected game total was just over 50 expected points in the Packers at Colts game. Outside of an expensive Davante Adams, it was a tough one to predict where the fantasy points were going to come from.
Considering all that transpired on Sunday, the outcome resulted in one of the more difficult weeks we’ve had in 2020. What were we going to do with Taysom Hill? Do we use the Vikings passing attack or just Dalvin Cook? Same question for the Steelers and the Chargers as double digit favourites. Hopefully you survived this week without losing too much, like I did. Let’s get into it.
As mentioned, it was a weird week to navigate. Ultimately, I wanted exposure to the Packers and Colts. The thought of Aaron Rodgers at 5% ownership and Adams under 20% was too good. I decided to bring the stack back with Hines. Even though Taylor stole the show, Hines had two receptions for around 30 yards and a touchdown called back to BS holding calls. In hindsight, Pittman should have been the guy…
Jakobi Meyers appeared to be “good chalk” to me, as Cam clearly showed us how much he liked the rookie. At just $4,900, it was an easy play in a potential shootout.
Keelan Cole was a punt option in a bring-back from being in love with Dionte Johnson. I also knew I needed at least one low-owned guy to differentiate from my fairly chalky lineup. Logan Thomas was another cheap option at tight end in a soft matchup.
Deciding on the Falcons was quite easy, considering the Saints were without Drew Brees (although Jameis might have been better) and ATL was near minimum price on DraftKings.
*A screen shot of my entry into a single entry GPP (5,555 total entries) vs the winning lineup for the main-slate on DraftKings.
What went right?
Realizing that the ownership would not be all that high on a game expected to see the most points was extremely enticing. Rodgers did his part, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. The turnovers did not help, but were somewhat expected against a very good defense. Adams was a fine pairing, totaling 26.6 DraftKings points, but missing Tonyan was really important for this stack to hit.
Each and every week, it can be a challenge to determine which wideout is going to have the best day for the Steelers. We have come to the conclusion that Johnson and Claypool are “the guys”. JuJu Smith-Schuster has struggled to stay healthy and is now seeing a lot more double coverage. As a result, Dionte Johnson has become the possession receiver and Claypool the touchdown monster.
Not very difficult to predict. Although a slow start, Cook got there once again with over 100 yards and another touchdown. The running back pool for studs is getting thin. The position opportunity cost has become so important that jamming him in every week is almost a necessity.
Went went wrong?
Houston passing attack:
When I started doing my research, two things stood out. First, the New England Patriots have an awful run defense. Second, the Houston Texans have an even worse run defense. With the Patriots getting pro bowl corner Stephon Gilmore back, I was certain the Texans would run, run, run. Well, Duke Johnson is as bad as we initially realized and Watson elected to air it out for 344 yards and two touchdowns. Adding another on the ground made him the quarterback to have this past week.
I don’t want to fully say the decision was wrong, nor the process. After putting Rodgers and Adams in my lineup, I predicted the Packers would get an early lead and the Colts would be playing from behind in an up-tempo game. That came to fruition. In addition, as mentioned above, Hines had 11 DraftKings points taken away from debateable penalties. However, Johnathon Taylor was used far more than I thought. Of course he is a fantastic running back and deserves the opportunity share. This should be a situation similar to New England, where the snap share will be inconsistent week-to-week.
A product of salary relief. When you are dumpster diving, you take blind dart throws. With the news on Laviska Shenault being ruled out, Cole was a confident selection. It was clear that the Jags were going to need to throw most of this game. Unfortunately, I may have underestimated the talent of Jake Luton against a tough Steelers D. He did attempt 37 passes. The four interceptions were the difference maker.
Just stop playing this guy. Like ever again. He continuously lets me down in games he should be a lock. The matchup against the Bengals could not have been much better. Although Joe Burrow going down did not help the game script for the passing attack, Thomas still saw five targets which he could only muster into two receptions and six yards. The sharper play would have been to extend the Packers stack to Tonyan. Live and learn.
Before last game, Meyers saw a total of 37 targets in the previous four games. Good for 346 yards. Damiere Byrd and N’Keal Harry combined for 120 yards on 17 targets over that stretch. Apparently, week 11 meant that Cam Newton was going to pull a fast one on all of us and target Byrd seven times (six receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown), and Harry eight times (five receptions for 41 yards).
Ok, we all know that the Lions are not a great team. Especially when they lose their top two offensive players. But the Panthers are not good either! The Buccaneers just hung 46 points on this team a week ago. I am chalking this up to a WTF game and moving on to Thanksgiving. Detroit has a date with the Texans in one of the more fantasy friendly games of the day.
If you play on FanDuel or had the pleasure of picking this guy up in ESPN, you were able to play a QB at the tight end position. It was a no-brainer. On DraftKings, Hill entered the slate as a $4,800 starting quarterback for a very viable offense. With a 78% completion percentage on 233 yards through the air, Hill also added two rushing touchdowns for 25.4 DraftKings points. Good for 5.29x. Going into the week he was projected around 23% ownership. An easy fade at the position for someone that highly owned. What do you do? I decided to play the Atlanta defense for leverage and it did not really work out.
With all of the injuries as well, Week 11 is one to forget. I didn’t even touch on the Cowboys upset over the Vikings or the New York Jets putting up three touchdowns in the second half to scare the Chargers. Every week has variance, no doubt. It is why we love this sport so much. It is impossible to get everything right, all of the time. So I am going to take the L on this week and move forward to my favorite Thursday of the year. Stay tuned for my Thanksgiving DFS article to drop later this week. Good luck and let’s cash!