BUY LOW SELL HIGH WEEK 11: TRADE DEADLINE EDITION II
Justin Rosser Nov 18, 2020
PLAYER I WAS WRONG ABOUT WEEK 10:
Terry McLaurin: I told you to sell high on him and my argument was sound. After seeing another week go by and watch this ultra-talented WR get used all over the place, over the top routes, quick slant routes, looking good again doing it, I have come to the conclusion that Air Terry might be QB proof. I admit my shame in putting him in the Sell high and I will take my lashes.
PLAYER I WAS RIGHT ABOUT WEEK 10:
Chris Godwin: It’s hard to be right or wrong from week 10, as a lot of the players I listed were coming back from injury or on BYE week. I told you to buy low last week on Chris Godwin and it proved to be right with getting another 6 targets/6 receptions and 12.20 points, Brady likes him and he is clearly a centerpiece for this offense heading towards playoffs.
Ronald Jones: Coming off an impressive 24.30 point performance, perfect timing, just before the deadline as he had a 4.6 and 3.3 point games in the previous two games. This is not a backfield I want any part of, on any given week, Jones could go off and have an amazing performance OR he can drop a pass or fumble and get benched the entire game. It’s such a volatile backfield that this could be the moment to cash in for the maximum value on Ronald Jones.
Wayne Gallman Jr: Some would say that he has filled in remarkably in Devonta’s absence and they wouldn’t be wrong. Since getting his start, Gallman has had double digit point outputs in every start, but don’t be fooled. His numbers are inflated by a hot TD streak at 5 in his last 4 games. He averaged 4.0 Yards per carry since he started, ranking him 33rd in that category. He has not topped 70 yards Rushing in any of those games despite double digit carries. The TD regression is coming, to a certain extent at least; I just don’t see him keeping up that pace. Also if you take a look at his schedule during playoffs he plays Ari (21st), Cle (23rd) and Bal (24th– Championship weekend), that’s to say Devonta has not returned and assumed his role as lead back or minimum 50/50. My advice is to show the owner his point totals since he has replaced Devonta, some owners will be salivating and thinking they are getting a steal, but you will be the last one laughing.
Kalen Ballage: I was a big advocate of grabbing this guy off waivers and it’s turned out fantastic if you had the guts to start Ballage. Look for a RB needy team and try to make the sale, in his two starts he has gotten workhorse carries in 15 and 18 also having pretty solid points in both. Why would I want to sell an ascending player? Well reports say that Austin Ekeler is coming off IR and expected to return week 12, as well as Justin Jackson will return at some point. So while Ballage has great upside…for one more week, from there on forward there are a lot of mouths to feed and he will not be startable on regular basis.
Adam Thielen: Thielen has been pretty consistent for the most part, but has had a very forgiving schedule up to this point in the season. Thielen does have some dud games, but why I want to lean sell on Thielen is that you could get some pretty good return on his talents and he has a pretty hard schedule coming up and during fantasy playoffs. I always want my players in playoffs to have the best matchups possible. Let me ask you this, would you rather have a WR against the Seattle defense or against the Rams defense? I will take the Seattle matchup all day and it’s those little things that improve your odds to win the title.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Man has MVS disappointed so many owners in the last two years. He has FINALLY showed up in the last two weeks, posting 18.30 and 22.90 points in the last two weeks. If you stashed him then look for an opportunity to sell. Why, you ask? His schedule is 50/50, this guy has been a ghost for 2 years and we have to assume he will disappear again. Making matters worse, Allen Lazard just got taken off of IR, so he should assume his role as the WR2 in Green bay upon return. Use the last two monster weeks and SELL SELL SELL, he could not have had back to back solid weeks at a better time.
Marvin Jones Jr: I am actually a Marvin Jones Jr fan; I always seem to have shares of him. After a really slow start to the season, Jones Jr has flourished in the last four games. The problem is, Golladay will be coming back eventually and demand WR1 targets, not to say Jones Jr will be ineffective completely. Sometimes players benefit when studs come back as the top coverage defensive backs direct their attention to them. Jones Jr has a hard schedule and with Golladay coming back, this could be a decent time to sell him and get more value. I don’t mind keeping Marvin on my roster as well, he is a great player in a pinch, but should be started only in desperation after Golladay returns.
Myles Gaskin: Averaging 11.9 points per game on the year. He is a model of consistency and a player who was heating up, having some of his best performances before his minor injury occurred. He is expected to return to the lineup Week 12, right when his schedule gets the best. Opponents week 12 (NYJ), 13 (CIN), 14 (KC), 15 (NE) and 16 (LV). He is probably a fairly cheap buy at this point and could fill a RB2/Flex role quite nicely. This is my favorite buy low target of the week, I love me some consistency!
James Conner: Why trade for Conner? Because he has been used as a bell cow back this year (nearing 18 attempts per game), but in the last 2 weeks in easy matchups he has flubbed. They seem to feed him the ball in games that are more competitive and he looks like a stud in them.
You can get a guy that has proven to be a bell cow workhorse for probably a good bargain and get the return that he has produced most the season could be a massive win for your franchise. A lot of their upcoming games seem to be against high ranked teams, so I would assume that he starts to get fed the ball come closer to playoffs. Then again the Steelers are un-defeated and maybe they rest him a bit, but I don’t expect that, so go buy him.
Kenny Golladay: I know I know… I just put Marvin Jones Jr on the sell high list. Golladay is a different animal. He finished last year with a whopping 11 REC TDs and was one of the best WR in fantasy. This year he has been a bit injured, hence the opportunity to pounce on an offer. Right now his status is not clear, but better to strike now and make a deal while the opponent gets frustrated that he has only played 4 games on the year (all were between 12-15 points). BUYER BEWARE, he does have a tough schedule ROS, but in my mind he is pretty much matchup proof.
Travis Fulgham: Fulgham is a stud, all I hear people say is that he is done now that Reagor is back or now that Jeffery is back, but in my opinion, he is the man there. I don’t know why everyone has lost faith in him because of one bad game (1.30 against GIANTS), but he still had 5 targets and that’s the worst on the year for him. This sentiment going around the league is perfect for buying in on him right now, he has an absolute butter of a schedule ROS. In his last 6 games he plays CLE(6th), SEA(1st), ARI (8th) and DAL (3rd), you can’t ask for a better situation. Go ask the Fulgham owner what he thinks about all the “studs” coming back healthy in PHI, their answer could mean $$$ to you!
Robert Woods OR Cooper Kupp: Both these guys have had their up and their down games. This means there is a window of opportunity. I know the Rams love to run the ball; in turn it opens up the play action and passing game. But these guys have proven they can be electric in hard matchups, but guess what? There is only 1 left that actually is against a Defense to worry about… their last two games in playoffs are NYJ(10th) and SEA(1st). Sign me up and let me gamble on those shootout games that these guys will put up some numbers. Plus I’m a Rams fan, so hey, I’m a bit biased.
Justin Rosser Nov 18, 2020
BUY LOW / SELL HIGH Week 10 TRADE DEADLINE EDITION
Justin Rosser Nov 13, 2020
Lamar Jackson: I don’t usually touch base on QB’s for my BUY LOW SELL HIGH article, but before the deadline, this is a must. Lamar Jackson, reigning MVP is sitting outside the top 12 at QB currently, but the owner with him might be pretty down on him and you might be able to swoop in and SNIPE him, Jackson has some juicy match ups coming up in the schedule, with Dal (week 13), Cle (week 14) and Jax (week 15).
Miles Gaskin: He has been out 1 week, with 2 remaining weeks on IR, but is expected to get him back week 12. Miami does not know what they want to do with their backfield with Gaskin out. If the owner needs play now RBs, you can get him on the cheap. He has one of the best schedules on return against NYJ (week 12), CIN (week 13), KC (week 14) and LV (week 16) on championship weekend.
Raheem Mostert: Ruled out week 10 and San Fran has a BYE week 11. Just enough time for him to come back healthy and hopefully he can hit the ground running with those strong stat lines he had earlier in the season. The 49ers don’t have the easiest schedule, but I assume with so many play makers injured, that they will lean heavily on him. Go make an offer, he has missed so much of the season, this owner will happily get something of value for him. On the other hand, they have waited this long and don’t want to give him up, in that case move on as you would have to overpay at this point for him.
HONORABLE MENTION FOR DYNASTY JONATHAN TAYLOR: He has under performed so much, they seem to like N.Hines. Go grab this ultra-talent and sit on him in DYNASTY.
DJ Chark: I said it last week and he went off, I think that you should make a strong push to get him on your roster. He has a great schedule minus the playoff games, which are pretty difficult. I assume they will be playing catch-up in those games, so he should still get lots of looks. He has such a high ceiling, in his two blowup games he had 12 and 14 targets. You can get him for pretty cheap as a lot of the trade value charts have him at a low value, use this when negotiating.
Chris Godwin: Godwin’s 2020 season has been riddled with injuries, so his ranking is really low. After a 5.60 point performance last Sunday against the lowly JETS combined with AB in town now, you could really talk your way into getting him at a much lower price. Compared to what you would have had to pay at the start of the year. I think AB is going to affect Mike Evans more than he will Godwin, its proven that when Godwin plays healthy, Brady looks his way a lot more. After their week 13 BYE they have great match ups for playoffs.
Mark Andrews: After 3 games under 5 points in a row and 5/8 under that mark on the season, Andrew owners are not getting the return they had hoped for on him. He still has a fairly hard schedule and his season seems to be a bit TD dependent, but this team will turn it around with the Passing TDs, combine that with his talent as a pass catcher and I think that Andrews will be the biggest winner.
Zeke Elliott: I touch on this every week, your time to sell high might have passed, but worth a try. NEXT…..
Kareem Hunt: Look, I really like Hunt, he has done well as the lone back on the Browns while Chubb was out with an injury. It looks like Chubb will be activated from IR pending a medical exam and I would try to cash out on his production before Chubb takes the RB1 role back. He is RB 8 on the season and that should go a long way when selling him.
Todd Gurley: Gurley has blown my mind so far this season, regardless of him being TD dependent, he is still putting up the points, in a big way. He is on his BYE week, so it might be a bit hard to sell him, but his production in the fantasy world will sell itself. Gurley has tons of knee problems and I’m feeling that’s going to catch up to him at the end of the season, he also has had one of the most CAKE schedules to date out of all RBs. He has a pretty hard schedule after the BYE minus his week 12 matchup against LV. You could get a pretty penny for him or gamble that he can continue this pace.
Tyler Lockett: Ok, I know he is in the top 5, but that’s the best part of selling him now. He is a huge gamble week to week as his style is so boom/bust. His best 4 matches were amazing at 13.2, 16.2, 32.5 and 45.5, those numbers are unreal. He has an incredibly high ceiling, on the other hand he has a very low floor, which you don’t want to run into during playoff games at 4.9, 6.4, 5.3, 6.0, so half his games are great, the other half are bummers. Why not sell high on his value as a top 5 WR and go and get a more consistent player that’s safer for playoffs.
Terry McLaurin: Terry is a stud, so you should get a stud return from him. Ranking at WR 11 on the year this dude is a stud. When you watch him he is just so quick and dynamic and he does have a fairly easy schedule for ROS, make that a selling point. The problem is he has a QB3, who might have never played football again throwing to him (god bless Alex Smith). I’m sure that he will still be productive, as their clear WR1 on the team, but the uncertainty at QB scares me enough to go get a more secure player in a more secure situation.
Jonnu Smith: After his blazing hot start, he had established himself as a TOP 5 tight end, sitting at number TE 2 in the league. If you have another great tight end like Hockenson, make a move to sell Jonnu. Since week 5, he has slowed down heavily posting 1.8, 1.4, 3.9, 10.2, 8.5 in his last 5 games. Smith was getting in the range of 5-8 targets at the beginning and now is looking at 2 targets a game. I would sell high on the fact that he is ranked so well and it’s a position of scarcity. Like I said if you have the luxury of having another decent tight end, make this move .
Justin Rosser Nov 13, 2020
BUY LOW / SELL HIGH WEEK 9 Justin Rosser Nov 6, 2020
Zack Moss (back to back): This one might be too late, as I posted in BUY LOW SELL HIGH WEEK 8. I was big time on the buy Zack Moss train, he is finally healthy and had 14 carries for 81 yards and 2 TDs last week and they seem to love him in the red zone. If the owner is on the fences about him, make a move on him and use the “he splits with Singletary” line, as no owner wants a committee RB, even though that’s just the world we live in. Moss could be a great add and is startable flex player in my opinion.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been up and down this year, what I love about Jacobs is his talent and the VOLUME. He had 31 rush attempts in week 8, he is usually involved in the passing game for around 4 targets per game, but where this owner drafted him, they expected prime numbers every week, which Jacobs has not produced on a regular basis. With the volume he gets, he should have a decent floor with a HIGH ceiling.
Leonard Fournette: Uncle Lenny is back!!! Rojo coughed up a fumble and that was all Bruce Arians needed to see to jump ship. Fournette out snapped Rojo 51-17 in week 8, he is clearly the lead back on Tampa Bay. The game did not go especially well for Fournette, but he had the most rushes (15) on the year for him, I expect to see that number rise even more. Some people think Rojo is still the RB to own there, I would definitely try to get Fournette for a good price before this Sunday’s game.
Robby Anderson: Robby Anderson started the year hot and established himself as the WR1 in Carolina over D.J Moore. He has had double digit games in 5/8, but has tapered off as of late. Coming off a 7.30 point performance against the Falcons, where everyone expected a big game from him, you can probably get a really good deal on him with those recent bad 3 games in their rearview mirror. He has not had fewer than 5 targets in any game and had 3 games in double digits.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp will still cost you a pretty penny to acquire, but man do you need to get some of him in your lineups. Week 6 he had 2.65 points and week 7 he had 8.9 points, use that when you’re buying him. Kupp is used heavily in this Rams offense, he has not gone under 5 targets in any game this year. He received 20 targets last game, that’s astronomical and obviously that won’t be repeated. Any target rate over 8 per game is extremely high. Oh yeah, by the way, the Rams play the JETS week 15 and the Seahawks week 16….ok….stop drooling.
DJ Chark: This is my favorite buy low candidate. He posted a 3.10, 8.00, 3.10 in his last 3 and his value on trade charts has gone down considerably. This man has a monster ceiling and I believe we have not even seen even close to his good games of the year. He gets pretty solid volume and they always look to him in clutch situations. He has a hard playoff schedule, but his next 6 games are fantastic matchups.
Mark Andrews: I know he is a top tier tight end, but he has been very DR Jeckle and Mr Hyde this season. He has been in the 3 point range 4 times this year and seems to be TD dependent on his big days. When you are trying to buy him, point out that he has not had a game over 58 yards receiving in any game this year. I think you could steal Andrews for a 2 for 1 giving a solid TE back in the deal. He could be a game changer in the playoffs and we all know his yards should go up and the TDs should come. Elite TEs are hard to find.
Todd Gurley: If you watch Gurley play on Sundays you will understand when I say he makes sloths look fast. As a Rams fan I was blessed to watch Gurley in his prime years and he was absolutely amazing. He has lost his top speed and burst, but what he has going for him is his TD numbers this year. Gurley has 8 rushing TDs on the year, which makes his numbers seem so juicy. They feed him the ball, but he can only achieve 3.8 yards per attempt. I would sell now before those TDS dry up or his knee gives out on him again.
Zeke: This is touching back to last week, as I begged everyone to SELL SELL SELL. Zeke is a low end RB2 at this point, the QBs on Dallas are horrible, the team has given up on the coach. Elliott’s numbers have dropped off significantly. If you can find someone who will give you a pretty good return purely on name value and talent then jump on it, because Dallas is just not that good this year and Zeke won’t see the end zone very much, also has a horrible schedule for the rest of the year.
Damien Harris: Harris looked great last week, 16 carries for 102 yards and a TD. But that’s one game and it’s the Patriots. What do we do with Patriot RBS? WE AVOID THEM!!! With Sony Michel coming off IR for this weekend’s game, that volume Harris has had is going to plummet and you will be staring at a brutal decision if you have to play him. Sell high on his big week!!!
Mike Evans: O.K, if you have Mike Evans this might be your last chance to sell high on him… He has had a decent year so far and he has a good playoff schedule (use that to sell him). In all reality, when Godwin was in the lineup, Evans was nowhere to be seen; now Antonio Brown is playing this weekend. When both Godwin and Brown are in the lineup I see Evans fading into the abyss. The fact that he got the TD last week made him very sellable to your league mates that don’t look to the future and only in the past. SELLLLLLL!!!
Will Fuller: This choice is more of a “gut feeling”, but you can get a TON for Will Fuller right now, with a solid year, posting double digits in every game this year. If there is anything I know about Will Fuller, it’s that he is brittle. I have this feeling the injury is right around the corner and it’s bound to happen. I do admit, he is fantastic when he is playing as he gets a TD almost every game, but I just don’t trust his injury history, so take this one with a grain of salt.
Logan Thomas: Thomas has looked really good in his last 2 games posting a modest 11.70 points and 14.00 points in the last two weeks. People are starving for tight ends and you can sell high on the fact that he is part of that offense, but hopefully they don’t see that he combined for 12.9 in the 4 games before that run. His playoff schedule is horrific and I would be looking to take advantage of an owner who lost kittle or has Gesicki as their TE1 to make a deal.
-Justin Rosser Nov 6, 2020
BUY – Zach Moss: Zach Moss was a hyped up rookie in the offseason, only to have fallen off a cliff with injury riddled first campaign. In his second game back from injury, Moss split the workload evenly with fellow back Singletary and outplayed him. Moss rushed 7 times for 47 yards at a great average of 6.71 yards per carry. He was also involved in the pass game, with 3 catches for 25 yards. They clearly like Moss and he could earn more of a role going forward. Listen, he is cheap and the Moss owner is frustrated, if you want a stash that could pay off, he could be worth a stab.
SELL – Ronald Jones: I know he has had a pretty solid year so far, but Fournette is back healthy and he looked great. Jones has struggled in the receiving game and had a horrible game against the Raiders rushing for 13 times for 34 yards averaging 2.61 yards per carry. Fournette will be taking more of a role and is the passing down back now. Selling high on Jones’s good year up to this point might be the right move to get your best bang for your “buc”.
BUY- Antonio Gibson: Gibson is on his BYE week, people love to trade players away that can’t play NOW, patience is a virtue. You might be a little late on buying Gibson, but if you can work your used car salesman tactics, maybe you can get him fairly cheap. Last week against DAL (I know I know…) Gibson had 20 carries for 128 yards and a TD averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He has averaged 3.2 targets per game as well, those numbers are Bell Cow numbers and probably inflated a bit because of game script against a hopeless Dallas team. 20 carries is no joke, he is worth an offer!
SELL- Ezekiel Elliott: Zeke is a beast, but maybe now is the time to sell high on the name value and pretty decent start to the year, but the locker room is crashing, QB’s are getting injured and game script is not in his favor. Zeke has not had a 100 yard rushing game this year, in his last 2 games (as the injuries stack up) he has gotten 12 carries per game for under 50 yards in both. He was averaging 17.8 carries in the 5 games previous. Dallas does not believe in Mike McCarthy and this team is just not as good without Dak, everything is trending downward, but you still have time to sell him for high value to the right owner, I say it’s time to jump ship and let someone elses roster spot “FEED ZEKE”.
BUY- D.J Moore: Moore has had 93 yards in his last 3 outings and he finally is getting into the ZONE with 3 TDs in his last 3 games. Moore was getting drafted EARLY this year and his value had dipped quite significantly. He won’t be cheap, but with games against ATL, KC, TB, DET, MIN, GB coming up, games script would say these are higher scoring games, which could pay dividends. He has that annoying week 13 BYE, but I’m willing to look past it to get a discount on a highly talented Moore, depends on how the owner values him.
SELL- Mike Evans: When Godwin is in the lineup, Evans disappears. In Evans last 2 games he has had 2 targets a piece for 10 and 37 yards. He is a great talent, but with Fournette healthy and catching passes, AB coming to town as well, I could see him have much less of a role than what you expect from a “MIKE EVANS”. He has had a respectable season so far previous of the last 2 games, so I would use that as ammo when you sell him to a competitor.
Justin Rosser OCT 29, 2020