And just like that, one week is in the books. A lot of lessons learned and take-aways from a pretty fun opening week. Somethings went wrong and somethings went right. For the most part, chalk busted, which is always great for a GPP player. Unfortunately, looking ahead to this week, we may not get so lucky…
The purpose of this article is to provide tournament winning lineup options in DFS. The obvious “chalk” plays, are easy enough to google and determine on your own. Mixing and matching high-owned, good players, along with low-owned, high upside players, is what we are trying to discover. Let’s get into it.
Dak Prescott (DAL) – $6,800 @ LAC (projected 13% ownership):
Everyone is expecting fireworks in a game that now has the highest projected game total at 55. Prescott looked fantastic last Thursday against the Bucs, where he threw for 403 yards and three touchdowns. Given his strong chemistry with two stud receivers, we should expect a similar performance most weeks, like last season before his ankle injury.
Considering how weak the Cowboys defense is, the game script indicates a back and forth matchup, both QB’s slinging it all game. Prescott attempted 58 passes, with 6 deep attempts. If Dallas is playing from behind or in a tight game with the Chargers (-3.5 favorite), then Dak will go off again.
*Projection – 365 yards, 4 TD’s, 2 INT’s, 25 rushing yards – 29.85 DK points
Matt Ryan (ATL) – $5,600 @ TBB (projected 1% ownership):
After a pretty ugly week one, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons disappointed a lot of DFS and Fantasy GMs. In what seemed like a pretty good matchup against the Eagles, Atlanta was embarrassed, to the tune of a 32-6 blowout. Now, they travel to Tampa and face the defending Super Bowl champs, who look even better than last year.
That being said, the Bucs are a pretty clear-cut, pass-funnel, defense. Calvin Ridley managed 18 receptions on 26 targets for 215 yards last season, in two games against Tampa Bay. Considering Mike Davis is hardly a threat to manage any production on the ground, expect Ryan to air it out, all day.
*Projection – 333 yards, 3TD’s, 2 INT’s, 0 rushing yards – 24.32 DK points
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – $9,900 vs. NO (projected 9% ownership):
When the top fantasy producing player is sub-10% owned, jump on it. Even if he eventually creeps up past 10%, this is a steal. The pricing this week on DraftKings is a little questionable at the position. There are a handful of great options between $6,300 and $6,100 where the majority of the ownership will go. There is still plenty of value that will make CMC easy to fit into your roster. As we all know, the Carolina offense will run through McCaffrey and he will have opportunity to produce, as always.
*Projection – 73 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 85 receiving yards, 1 TD – 28.8 DK points
Javonte Williams (DEN) – $4,400 @ JAX (projected 3% ownership):
While Melvin Gordon ended up rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown, compared to 45, Williams had three more rush attempts. In his first game with the Broncos, Williams had a pretty good workload against a bad Giants team. Week two brings an arguably worse defense in Jacksonville and a similar game script. If we can project Williams to secure 12-15 rushing attempts against this horrific run defense, Williams should smash his $4,400 price tag value.
With the news about Jerry Jeudy, the fantasy community is ecstatic about K.J. Hamler and his near minimum DraftKings price this week. Javonte Williams and the running attack from the Broncos, provide significant leverage over any receiving option.
*Projection – 80 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 1 TD – 19.2 DK points
Keenan Allen (LAC) – $7,000 vs. DAL (projected 19% ownership)
It would not be surprising to see Keenan Allen come in as the highest owned receiver on the slate. Fading Allen, altogether is a scary thought. Which is why we need to discuss him. The obvious run-back to a Cowboys stack, Allen has an extraordinarily high floor with immense upside. He recorded 9 receptions for 100 yards last week in a difficult matchup with Washington. Now, he gets a dream matchup against Dallas in what should be a shootout. Hard to find a reason to not play Allen here.
Pivoting to Mike Williams would create a lot of leverage and is a very viable option. However, if you are construction multiple lineups, try to get exposure, to some degree. He has the best “slate-breaking” potential in week two.
*Projection – 10 receptions, 125 yards, 1 TD – 31.5 DK points
Marquez Callaway (NO) – $4,200 @ CAR (projected 3% ownership)
Remember mentioning how the “chalk” busted last week? Oh man, did Callaway ever disappoint against the Packers. Winston only needed 20 pass attempts in a very non-competitive game. In addition, Jaire Alexander is a legit stud CB.
Callaway was one of the most hyped players this off-season. For good reason. That has not changed. Carolina is an easier matchup in what should be a more competitive game. The Packers obviously did not show up. At just 3% ownership, and only $4,200, Callaway has a very good chance of having the game we all expected last week.
*Projection – 6 receptions, 95 yards – 15.5 DK points
Darren Waller (LVR) – $7,600 @ PIT (projected 13% ownership)
Monday evening was a humbling reminder on how good Waller actually is. It was also a reminder on how much Carr needs to throw to him. In past seasons, paying down at the position made a lot of sense considering how many viable options there were. However, it is so difficult to avoid paying up for a guy who will likely produce 3 to 4 times the fantasy points as the majority of other tight ends. The position opportunity cost becomes something to consider as we can easily find value at the WR and DEF position. He’s matchup proof so will undoubtedly have another great outing.
*Projection – 8 receptions 108 yards, 1 TD – 27.8 DK points
This is an interesting week, overall. Four of the five games with a game total over 50 projected points are scheduled in the afternoon. The ownership seems fairly condensed to the DAL/LAC game. That being said, Seattle and Tennessee should see traction as we get closer to Sunday. Every other game should go overlooked, in terms of a game stack. Do not be afraid of playing a high-owned player, so long as you get different elsewhere. Good luck this week and as always, reach me on twitter @j_maw for any questions.