NHL DFS Lineup Advice: February 18, 2021

It’s great to be back writing a DFS article for tonight’s slate! Needed a break but excited to get back into it. After a fairly quiet evening last night in the NHL, we have a nice nine-gamer which will once again, feature chalk Auston Matthews against the Senators. Now more than a month into the season, we have great data to back up what we think should happen.

The biggest difference this season has been how often teams are playing each other. Similar to playoffs, teams get to know each other quite well after their third and fourth meeting. This usually leads to lower scoring games. That being said, there are still great contests on DraftKings and we will need to identify the top options at each position. Let’s dive into it.

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TORONTO, ON – MARCH 10: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks on against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period at the Scotiabank Arena on March 10, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Auston Matthews (TOR) $9,000 vs. OTT
– A lot of value on tonight’s slate and not a lot of “pay-up” options at the position
– Has now scored 14 goals through just 16 games and leads the league
– Ottawa continues to lead the league in goals against
– Back-up netminder, Marcus Hogberg, should get the start and has been awful – owning a 4.32 GAA and .860 SV%
– Fires a lot of shots on net, averaging 4.3 per game

Nick Schmaltz (ARI) $6,000 vs. LA
– Finally, Arizona doesn’t have to play the St. Louis Blues, after a seven game series
– Schmaltz will center the top forward line and PP1
– Has scored 13 points through his first 15 games (again, seven of which were against the Blues…)
– On home ice, Arizona will be able to line match and avoid the tough matchup against Anze Kopitar

Jean-Gabriel Pageau
– “He’s so hot right now” ~ Mugatu
– Five goals and an assist in his last four games, Pageau is also averaging nearly four shots on goal per game
– Although he centers the third line, JG will also log time on PP2
– Pittsburgh is a below average team, defensively, ranked 27th in GA

Wing

Mitchell Marner (TOR) $8,300 vs. OTT
– Unlike the center position, the wing is loaded tonight – Marner is among the top options
– While he does not shoot as much as his counter parts, he does happen to lead his team in points with 23
– Marner is a great pairing with Auston Matthews against this Ottawa team
– Although they are playing better, defensively, Ottawa still ranks among the worst teams in the NHL in all categories
– The North Division is averaging the most goals per game, Toronto is a big reason ranking second in the league

Filip Forsberg (NSH) $7,100 @ CLS
– Nearly a point-per-game player, Forsberg has now recorded 14 points through the first 15 games
– Forsberg does not always light up the scoreboard, but he does shoot a lot – 62 on the season, averaging 4.1 per game
– The Blue Jackets have allowed 32 goals against in the month of February, only seven games – 4.5 per game
– Forsberg is a stacking option with the top forward line and PP1

Jordan Kyrou (STL) $4,700 vs. SJ
– Off to a great start, Kyrou now has 14 points through 16 games
– Will skate on the second forward line and PP2 for the Blues
– San Jose ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in GA, SOG against, and PK%
– Martin Jones is expected to get the start, owning a 3.75 GAA and .873 SV%

Defense

Roman Josi (NSH) $7,000 @ CLS
– Although very expensive, Josi is the top option at the position on most nights
– Averaging an absurd, 26 minutes of ice-time per game, Josi will play in all facets of the game
– The captain has 49 shots on goal and 28 blocked shots this season which attribute to his 12.1 FPPG
– Completes a Nashville stack which could go under the radar against a struggling team

P.K. Subban (NJ) $3,900 @ BOS
– I know he is not what he once was… but I had to do a double take at his price
– P.K. still averages 24 minutes of ice-time per game and will log PP2 time along with PK 1 time.
– While the matchup is tough against Boston and he hasn’t scored yet, his ice-time alone should allow the peripheral stats to add up and hit value

Goalie

John Gibson (ANH) $7,500 vs. MIN
– Another great start to the season, Gibson owns a 2.33 GAA and .921 SV%
– Minnesota lacks offensive star power, as Jordan Greenway leads the team with only 10 points
– The Wild have only scored 30 goals all season
– While the Ducks are not a great team, they are still in the playoff hunt and are a good bet to win as a +110 dog

Good luck tonight, it is an interesting set of games. There is a lot of star power, but not a lot of great matchups. Nashville is a frustrating team to pinpoint. They are fully capable of scoring 5+ goals in a game and I am going to bet on it tonight. Reach me on twitter @J_maw

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