NHL DFS Lineup Advice – February 15, 2021

Draftkings Feb 15th Main Slate – by Dave Carey

I hope you’ve all had a wonderful Valentines day and have left yourselves a few bucks in your Draftkings accounts for a pretty opportune slate. First of all, I want to point out that today is Presidents Day in the United States and is Family Day in Canada. Both holiday’s mean that people have some time off work and while. DFS Contest should likely see a wider range of people entering them than they typically do. While NHL contests remain small in size as compared to NFL and MLB we have a few exciting ones to recommend if you’re looking for a big payday!

Tonight’s slate contains 9 games, two of which project at 6.5 goals:

  • OTT Senators @ TOR Maple Leafs
  • WPG Jets @ EDM Oilers
Joe Thorton – #97 Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto PP1
  • Auston Matthews – 8,000
  • Mitch Marner – 7,500
  • Joe Thornton – 2,900
  • Morgan Rielly 5,500

The Leafs boast the 3rd best PP% in the NHL ticking along at 34.1%. Tonight they take on Ottawa who has the 24th ranked PK at merely 74.6%. Ottawa also turns in 10.38 PIM/G which is 7th most in the NHL. This sets up well for the Toronto group to score at least 1 PPG. Thornton is back from IR today and will be lining up at Center on the top unit. His salary is currently depressed after only playing 5 games this season and having missed his last 10. He only needs 8.7 DK points to return 3x value making him a very common salary relief play. I expect to see him in the 30-40% owned range tonight.

Nikolaj Ehlers #27 Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg PP2
  • Adam Lowry – 4,400
  • Nikolaj Ehlers – 7,000
  • Andrew Copp – 5,300
  • Neal Pionk – 4,800

These teams have met twice on the season and produced a total of 17 goals combined in those two matchups. In the last meeting between EDM and WPG the Jets beat the Oilers 6-4. Andrew Copp had 2G, 2A while Nicolaj Ehlers had 1G, 3A while Centers Paul Stastny and Adam Lowry combined for 5pts between them. This group comes together on the 2nd PP unit for WPG and has a good chance at returning value based off their modest salaries.

Center
Joe Pavelski #16 Dallas Stars

Joe Pavelski – DAL 7,200

In his last 10 GP Pavelski has notched 6G, 4A and averaged 2.6 SOG per game. On the season Pavelski has a 0.281 shooting % and has found the back of the net 7x on the power play. Nashville comes into this game having allowed 4.57 goals per game in their last 7 GP most recently including a poor loss the Red Wings on Saturday. Pavelski makes a great play to build your lineup around, consider making it a small stack with Jamie Benn (5,900) and John Klingberg(5,900).

Jordan Staal – CAR 5,700

Staal has been known as one of the leagues best defensive forwards for the past few seasons but in 2021 we’ve seen his offensive game come to the forefront of DFS. Staal is currently averaging 11.3 DK FPPG, 13th among DK Centers on tonight’s slate. Staal plays on a line with Andrew Svechnikov and Warren Foegele which Carolina coyly lists as their 3rd line. Staal and Svechnikov stay together on the top PP unit for Carolina as well if your looking to add them into your lineups as a neat game stack.

Wingers
Alex Debrincat #12 Chicago Blackhawks

Alex Debrincat – CHI 8,000

What an run its been for Debrincat and the Chicago Blackhawks team so far this year. Debrincat has posted 14pts in his last 10GP with a whopping 40 SOG in that stretch. Debrincat has found tier 1 chemistry with Patrick Kane and his game has jumped to the next level in 2021. As far as DFS plays go we look for players poised to have multi point performances. Debrincat has turned in 5 of those in his last 10 games played. Chicago faces Detroit tonight who rank 22nd in Goals allowed at 3.19/GM and 27th in PK% at 71.7%.

Filip Forsberg – NSH 6,600

Early on in 2021 Filip Forsberg looks to have shaken off his disappointing 2019-2020 point totals and changed gears as Nashville’s premiere offensive player. In his last 10GP Forsberg has had 47 SOG good for 4.7 per game. In DK DFS 5 SOG earns a player a +3pt boost. Its easy to see why the Swedish LW has posted a 14.5 FPPG DK average on the season. Nashville takes on Dallas tonight who are without some big names in Tyler Seguin, Ben Bishop and Alexander Radulov also noting that Roope Hintz will be a game time decision tonight. At 6,600 Forsberg averages a 2.20x return on investment from a DK scoring perspective.

Joe Thornton – TOR 2,900

This is a play that you pretty much HAVE to consider as your pay down option to include some of the big names in smash spots tonight. As mentioned above Thornton Centers the Maple Leafs top PP unit and only needs to score 8.7 DK pts to return 3x value. That means that if the puck bounced in off his nose he’s already in the elite range. Look for him to be heavily owned along with the other members of the Toronto PP1 unit.

Defense
Darnell Nurse #25 Edmonton Oilers

Darnell Nurse EDM – 5,700

Where to start with Oilers stud defensemen Darnell Nurse?

  • He’s racked up 5G, 5A in his last 10 GP. Those are good numbers for a forward!
  • Hes averaging 11.6 DK pts per game on the season which balloons to 14.4 DK pts per game over his last 10 GP
  • Nurse has scored 5G in his last 6 games
  • Averages 25.2 TOI/G in his last 10GP
  • The only spot where Nurse isnt currently featured is the Oilers PP1 unit, but hes doing just fine along side Evan Bouchard in the PP2 group

Tyson Barrie EDM- 5,400

Very similar spot to Darnell Nurse in terms of production. Barrie has collected 10pts in his last 10 GP. He is featured next to Connor McDavid at the point on Edmonton’s top PP unit. Barrie has averaged 3.3 SOG/G over his last 10 GP. The Oilers are funneling pucks Barrie’s way right now. In his last 8GP hes hit the 5 SOG bonus 3x while producing no less that 3 SOG. At 5,400 this is also the lowest price we’ve seen for Barrie since Feb 2nd. Given that EDM plays WPG at home tonight in a game that projects as one of the highest scoring on the night I like the mid price point for Barrie here.

Goalie

Freddy Andersen TOR – 8,500

If you’re looking to pay up at Goalie tonight this is the way to do it. Toronto is a -310 favorite on the night meaning that the oddsmakers think it will take a miracle for Ottawa to come away with a win tonight. This will provide Andersen with a safe floor to build off of. He’s a great feature in cash game lineups. In his last 10 GP Andersen has come away with the victory 7x. In his last 4 GP he has yet to allow 3 GA. Against Ottawa Andersen will lack the ceiling which may be necessary to distinguish our lineups in GPP play.

Linus Ullmark BUF – 7,200

This is a GPP play that I’m excited to roll out against the New York Islanders. Ullmark has averaged 14.8 FPPG in 2021 and owning a 3-1-2 record with a 914 SV%. A Buffalo goalie isn’t where we look for the Vezina trophy presentation but it could be where we look tonight to capitalize on opportunity. Buffalo is well rested coming of a considerable break due to COVID-19 postponements. Many will shy away from Ullmark for this reason tonight. The Islanders rank 25th on the year with a 2.46 GF/G average. This is a game which I believe will be low scoring.

-Dave Carey

Follow me on Twitter @87_Carey and @fantasymarksmen

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