NHL DFS Lineup Advice – February 11, 2021

We’re back with a 10 game slate in NHL Draftkings action. We’ve got a bit of history to work with now as teams around the NHL are starting to play each other for the second set of games in this young season. As noted in many of our previous articles some of the NHL punching bags like Vancouver and Ottawa are always a good place to start focusing with lineup construction.

Right off the hop, we’ve got a few games projecting at 6.5:

  • Ottawa Senators @ Winnipeg Jets (+/- 6.5)
  • Calgary Flames @ Vancouver Canucks (+/- 6.5)
  • Edmonton Oilers @ Montreal Canadians (+/- 6.5)

Conversely Vegas is listing 6 games a full point below that at a paltry (+/-5.5):

  • Pittsburgh Penguins @ NY Islanders
  • Detroit Red Wings @ Nashville Predators
  • Columbus Blue Jackets @ Chicago Blackhawks
  • Carolina Hurricanes @ Dallas Stars
  • San Jose Sharks @ LA Kings
  • Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights

Team Stacks

While many uncoordinated lineups have been able to cash so far in 2021 we should start to see some reliability from game theory come through. Here are some player groupings I’m looking towards selecting:

Montreal Canadians PP1
  • Jeff Petry (D) 6,600
  • Nick Suzuki (C) 5,700
  • Tyler Toffoli (RW) 7,300

Earlier this year Montreal looked dominant against Edmonton winning back to back games 5-1 and 3-1. These 3 players occupy the point and right side of the top PP unit for MTL which is converting 26.0% of the time on the year. These two teams have taken part in a lot of high scoring games this year and I expect that this game will be no different. Edmonton has the ability to score at a pace that can keep up with Montreal. Both sides of the scoreboard could be significant for DFS this week.

Chicago Blackhawks PP1
  • Patrick Kane 7,600
  • Dylan Strome 4,900
  • Alex Debrincat 6,900

Of the teams playing tomorrow night Chicago has the most effective PP on the season converting 31.6% of the time. Kane plays the point on the PP and has accumulated 10pts in his last 6 GP. Debrincat has been arguably hotter on the year though he missed 4 of the teams 12 games. In those 8 games he’s played had multi point nights on 4 occasions. Dylan Strome is more of a place holder in this scenario and should come in at a very low own%.

Edmonton Oilers PP1
  • Connor McDavid 9,000
  • Leon Draisaitl 8,500
  • Tyson Barrie 5,600

In the last of the 3 teams that I’m keen to recommend a game stack I’m looking to the other side of the Montreal game with the Edmonton Oilers top PP unit. McDavid and Draisaitl need no introduction in this section but the rational for choosing them centers around the Canadians leading the NHL in minor penalties on the year by a wide margin with 67. The next closest team to them is Vancouver at 51. Tyson Barrie has been used heavily of late and has amassed 5 SOG in 3 of his last 6 games. In DK formats he can receive a bonus for hitting that mark tomorrow night and further help himself to return value.

Hot Plays

I like to take a look at some individual players who stand out as studs on the slate which I want to get into my lineups:

Elias Lindholm 6,300

  • Playing on the top line in Calgary and the top PP unit
  • Game projects as one of the highest on the night
  • Vancouver takes the 2nd most minor penalties in the NHL
  • Has scored in each of his last two games

Andrew Copp 5,300

  • Playing along side Mark Scheiffele on L1 for WPG
  • Has 12pts in his last 10 games
  • Excellent chemistry with Nikolaj Ehlers, they play together on PP2

Ondrej Palat 4,900

  • Sub 5k pricing for a player playing L1/PP1 for Tampa Bay
  • Palat had 1G, 1A in his last game played
  • Florida can keep up with Tampa Bay in scoring so this game has good potential to shootout

Chandler Stephenson 4,300

  • Heavily discounted for a player skating between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone
  • Centers the 2nd PP unit
  • 4pts in his last 2 games players including 3 goals
  • Averages 17+ min per game in his last 5GP
Goaltenders

Many of the goaltenders which I gravitate towards for value or for consistent results are locked into high scoring projections tonight. I’m pivoting to a player that I’ve gotten excited about over the last few weeks and who’s team I’m rostering a few players from in my overall lineup construction.

Kevin Lankinen 7,700

  • 5-1-3 record with a 2.17 GAA and a 0.933 SV%
  • Chicago is a -115 favorite to win with a 5.5 goal line set by Vegas
  • Patrik Laine and the CLB coaching staff are currently fighting each other
  • CLB is missing Zach Werenski and Gus Nyquist
  • Chicago is on a 3 game win streak
  • In the two games that these teams have played against each other this year CLB has only managed to score 3G
Final Strategy notes

The chalk plays on the night are likely to gravitate towards the 3 games being played in the North Division where scoring has been dependable as compared to the other 3 divisions around the league. Even if you choose to build some contrarian lineups tonight be sure to get exposure to these 3 games with a few enticing value plays.

The impact of COVID-19 is apparent on this slate as Washington, Philadelphia, St Louis and Colorado are all idle and contain a good amount of the top players in the league. Lets hope that the NHL is able to keep up with its efforts to protect players and keep a high percentage of scheduled games happening for the fans.

Thanks for reading along and good luck for on the Draftkings Thursday Main Slate!

Dave Carey – Follow me on Twitter @87_Carey

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