NHL DFS Lineup Advice – February 2, 2021

Thanks to COVID, we have one less game scheduled this evening, which leaves us with eight. As the year progresses, this will be a common theme. What the future holds for the remainder of this young season is still up in the air. That being said, we will play the hand we are dealt and continue to win some cash.

From 30,000 feet, this slate looks quite straightforward. Sticking to the North Division for offense has paid off quiet well thus far. Both Ottawa and Vancouver have been teams to pick on and tonight is no different. Below is a snap shot of data I like to use for every slate. The color coding is specific to the teams playing tonight and not the entire league. Stats are from the guys at http://www.naturalstattrick.com/, be sure to check them out regularly.

Using the information above, combined with expected line-matching, starting goalies, and team trends, we can dissect any and all situations to predict the most likley outcome. Let’s dive into it!

Center

Auston Matthews (TOR) $8,500 vs. VAN
– Has scored six goals and four assists through his first nine games (missed one due to injury)
– Will play on the top forward line and PP1
– Ranked 10th in the NHL for shots on goal, despite playing three games less than others
– Vancouver has allowed the most goals against in the league (tied with Ottawa), but have allowed the most shots against, by a wide margin
– Vancouver has allowed the most High Danger Chances Against (HDCA), averaging 13 per game
– Toronto is converting 12% of their HDCF into goals, which should lead to at least one goal tonight in this category

Nick Suzuki (MON) $5,700 vs. OTT
– Becoming a favorite in the fantasy community with 11 points through his first 10 games and remains under $6,000
– Centers the second forward line and PP1 for Montreal
– Suzuki owns an individual GF% of 75 – the second forward line has been the most productive on the season
– Ottawa enters this game with 48 goals against through just 10 games (4.8 per game)
– The Senators rank 27th in Penalty Kill and 29th in penalties per game – load up on the Canadiens power-play

Jordan Staal (CAR) $4,100 @ CHI
– Recorded two assists and 15 minutes of ice-time last game against the Blackhawks two nights ago
– Will skate on the third forward line, PP2 and top PK unit
– Offers salary relief with a consistent fantasy production floor
– Will skate with either Andrei Svechnikov or Teuvo Teravainen – this is important because those are the goal scorers. Carolina spreads the wealth on three separate lines and does not stack up their top line. This gives Staal more opportunities for offensive production.

Wing

Mitchell Marner (TOR) $7,400 vs. VAN
– Plays on the top forward line and PP1 alongside Auston Matthews
– Has recoded 14 points through first 10 games this season
– Is the set-up man for Auston Matthews; while he is a great pairing and good for tournaments, he will not provide the same upside at this price for a pure goal scorer and player who shoots more
– As stated above, there is hardly a better matchup

Josh Anderson (MON) $5,000 vs. OTT
– Given his current production on the year and matchup tonight, he is one of the better point per dollar plays on the slate
– Matt Murray should get the start for the Senators tonight and has been horrible – owning a .849 SV%, 4.82 GAA with a 1-4-1 record
– Anderson will play on the second forward line with Nick Suzuki, but PP2

Wayne Simmonds (TOR) $2,500 vs. VAN
– Promoted to the second forward line, Wayne Simmonds is also a staple on the top power-play unit where he will have positive correlation with Matthews and Marner
– While the box score and current season stats do not pop off the charts, we should expect a massive increase in opportunities and ice-time going from the fourth line to the second
– It is difficult to find fantasy production at a minimum price tag and Simmonds provides a safe floor with multi-point upside in this matchup

Defense

Jeff Petry (MON) $6,500 vs. OTT
– Averaging the most FFPG on the slate at the position, yet priced as the third highest defenceman
– Quarterbacks the top PP1 unit and second pairing
– Has scored five goals and eight assists through the first 10 games of the season
– In addition to averaging over a point per game, he is also averaging over two shots on goal and a blocked shot per game
– Great correlation with Nick Suzuki

Noah Hanifin (CGY) $2,700 @ WPG
– Averaging nearly 20 minutes of ice-time per game for a $2,700 player
– Skates on the second defensive pairing
– Will contribute in shots on goal and blocked shots throughout the game as his ice-time and opportunities continue
– Logs time on the penalty kill which adds to the blocked shots category

Goalie

James Reimer (CAR) $8,300 @ CHI
– Offers a slight salary reduction to the heavy favorites of Carey Price and Fredrick Andersen
– Chicago ranks third in shots on goal this evening, yet 7th in goals for – Reimer should see a lot of low-quality shots on goal
– Currently owns a 4-0-0 record with a 2.19 GAA and .915 SV% – averaging 15.1 FFPG
– Carolina is a -185 tonight at Chicago

Good luck tonight. Like I mentioned at the top, it is a pretty straightforward evening. Do not get fooled by the Dallas Stars. Columbus plays at an extremely slow pace. They are one of the least penalized teams in the league. Meanwhile, Dallas currently has a 40.6% PP rate, which is completely unsustainable. Last game they scored three PP goals and an empty netter. You have been warned…

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