Welcome to the last week of the 2020-21 regular season. The most unique NFL year is coming to a close and we have a lot to discuss. From a DFS perspective, Week 17 is one of the best weeks to bet on. Understanding the narratives and unfolding playoff scenarios will give you an edge in determining the top plays.
This will be the last NFL DFS article I write as we gear up for the NHL. It’s been an interesting 2020, to say the least.
This Sunday is different in that every team will be playing. There is a primetime game which will leave the WFT and Eagles off the main-slate. Let’s break this down and uncover the most optimal plays of the day.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (HOU) $7,700 vs. TEN – Top tier
– 56.0 projected game total (highest on the slate)
– Romeo Crennel indicated Watson will start and will only consider taking him out “if they are up by 50 at half”
– Titans rank 29th overall defense and 30th DVOA vs. pass
– Texans rank 1st in NFL for pass percentage at 69.51% and 1st for pass touchdown percentage at 76.92%
– Titans need to win which should make this a competitive game where Houston needs to put up points
Kirk Cousins (MIN) $6,300 @ DET – Mid Tier
– Lions are now officially the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 110 fantasy points per game against to all offensive players
– Dalvin Cook will not play (thoughts and prayers to him and his family)
– Detroit rolls out cover 1 and 2 schemes at a top 5 rate against opposing teams. Cousins ranks 1st against cover 1, over the past two seasons, throwing 17 TD’s to 1 INT
– Scored over 20 DraftKings points in 5 of last 6 outings
– Career high in TD’s thrown this season
Baker Mayfield (CLE) $5,500 vs. PIT – Low Tier
– Steelers will be sitting top pass rushers (TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward) among other starters
– Browns need to win to keep playoff hopes alive
– Wide Receivers Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and KhaDarel Hodge will be back in the lineup
– Browns are 10 point favourites
– Baker Mayfield has attempted at least 30 passes in each of his last four games (53 last week against the Jets)
Running Back
Derrick Henry (TEN) $9,400 @ HOU – High Tier
– Needs 223 yards to hit 2,000 on the season
– Ran for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns against Houston in week 6
– Tennessee needs to win for playoff implications and this game has the highest game total on the day
– Good option for a game stack, bringing it back with passing side of Houston
– It’s Derrick Henry
Myles Gaskin (MIA) $6,500 @ BUF – Mid Tier
– Must-win game against Buffalo for playoff implications
– Buffalo could sit starters (no confirmation yet)
– Coming off a 169 all-purpose yardage game, which was good for 33.9 DraftKings points
– Game script will favour the running attack. Miami will either be playing competitively or from ahead all game
Malcom Brown (LAR) $4,300 vs. ARI – Low Tier
– No Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers is questionable, but recovering from injury
– Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp will not play, which will indicate a run-heavy game plan
– Rams are playing for win and playoff implications
– Arizona ranks 5th in Fantasy Points Allowed to running backs over the past four weeks
Wide Receiver
DaVante Adams (GB) $9,200 @ CHI – High Tier
– Plenty of value on the slate to afford Adams and another stud (Henry)
– Green Bay playing for win and #1 seed in playoffs
– Double-digit targets in 10 of 13 games
– Has hit 40+ DraftKings points three times, 30-39 three times, and 20-29 twice
– Similar to Derrick Henry, it’s DaVante Adams
Corey Davis (TEN) $6,200 @ HOU – Mid Tier
– Can be part of a game stack with anyone from this game
– Highest game total of the week at 56 and could trend higher
– Titans are in a must-win scenario for playoff implications
– Leverage off Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. Will also have low ownership coming off a 0 last week
– Needs 65 receiving yards for 1,000 on the season
Richie James (SF) $3,100 vs. SEA – Low Tier
– Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both listed as OUT
– In week 9, San Francisco was without Aiyuk and Samuel as well; James recorded a 9/184/1 receiving line
– Ran 91% of routes last week and is involved in the offense, despite the production
Tight End
Noah Fant (DEN) $4,400 vs. LV
– No playoff implications, but no reason to sit starters
– 27 targets in last three weeks and getting more involved in offense
– 51 point game total
Good luck in the final regular season week of the NFL! Check back in couple of weeks for the start of NHL DFS. My favourite and most profitable sport on DraftKings. As always, find me on twitter @j_maw.
Fantasy Marksmen 